Modelling urban spatial change: a review of international and South African modelling initiatives

August 2013Urban growth and land use change models have the potential to become important tools for urban spatial planning and management. Before embarking on any modelling, however, GCRO felt it was important to take note of, and critically assess lessons to be learnt from international experience and scholarship on spatial modelling, as well as a number of South African experiments that model future urban development. In 2012, GCRO initiated preliminary research into current international and South African modelling trends through a desktop study and telephone, email and personal interviews. This Occasional paper sets out to investigate what urban spatial change modelling research is currently being undertaken internationally and within South Africa. At the international level, urban modelling research since 2000 is reviewed according to five main categories: land use transportation (LUT), cellular automata, urban system dynamics, agent-based models (ABMs) and spatial economics/econometric models (SE/EMs). Within South Africa, urban modelling initiatives are categorised differently and include a broader range of urban modelling techniques. Typologies used include: provincial government modelling initiatives in Gauteng; municipal government modelling initiatives; other government-funded modelling research; and academic modelling research. The various modelling initiatives described are by no means a comprehensive review of all urban spatial change modelling projects in South Africa, but provide a broad indication of the types of urban spatial change modelling underway. Importantly, the models may form the basis for more accurate and sophisticated urban modelling projects in the future. The paper concludes by identifying key urban modelling opportunities and challenges for short- to long-term planning in the GCR and South Africa.Written by Chris Wray, Josephine Musango and Kavesha Damon (GCRO) Koech Cheruiyot (NRF:SARChI chair in Development Planning and Modelling at Wits

A roadmap framework for solar aided power generation in South Africa

Technology roadmaps are critical for decisions pertaining to technology development. They have been utilised in the renewable energy sector to assist in filtering alternative technology options in order to support energy policy formulation, energy security and energy independence, among others. However, solar aided power generation is a recent concept and no roadmap has been developed for the technology as yet. This paper thus reviewed the literature related to roadmapping with the aim of understanding the methods and tools that have been utilised in other settings. Informed by the literature, a conceptual framework was developed, which was further utilised for the initial analysis for developing a roadmap for solar aided power generation in South Africa. Generally, it would be beneficial for South Africa to integrate solar aided power generation within its current Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) or the National Treasury Public-Private Partnership (PPP) programme. However, it should be noted that this is only feasible in the short- and medium-term. In the long-term, there is a need to support stand-alone solar thermal technologies

A Conceptual Approach to the Stakeholder Mapping of Energy Lab in Poor Urban Settings

Various efforts are presently being undertaken to set up and maintain open, inclusive, participatory, and transparent processes, whilst at the same time, strengthening stakeholder partnerships in implementing SDGs remains a challenge. This paper enriched the discussion of multi-stakeholder approaches through a dynamic multi-level system view of stakeholder mapping, along with important theoretical frameworks and key empirical results to tackle the lack of security of energy services in poor urban settings. The study attempted to develop comprehensive cases for Africa-based experiences of the pilot project launched through a set-up of an energy living lab in the Groenheuwel community, as well as achieve an improved understanding of social-technical benefits of gendered energy security and innovative solutions at the household level. The contents are two-fold. The first part assesses the theoretical models available for stakeholders and outcome mapping. The second part focuses on the preliminary identification of stakeholders and their primary interests at all levels. The results of this study found that the energy living lab in poor urban settings recognised the importance of stakeholder mapping and the development of new solutions. Findings indicated that all stakeholders should support the government in the development of policies and strategies. Findings also suggested that key players should proactively agree and negotiate with the local government on energy outcome measures. It was also found that multi-stakeholder involvement improved transparency and accountability for decision making

Exploring factors that influence the mainstreaming of gendered energy interventions in poor urban environments : a structured literature review

CITATION: Oosthuizen, L., De Kock, I. H. & Musango, J. K. 2020.. Exploring factors that influence the mainstreaming of gendered energy interventions in poor urban environments : a structured literature review. South African Journal of Industrial Engineering, 31(3):83-96, doi:10.7166/31-3-2421.The original publication is available at http://sajie.journals.ac.zaENGLISH ABSTRACT: Energy sectors are faced with the interconnected challenges of urbanisation and providing a growing population with accessible and sustainable energy that facilitates economic development, energy security, and poverty reduction. The Sustainable Development Goals address issues that include poverty, gender equality, energy, and sustainable cities, and highlight the need to improve the lives of poor communities and to address economic marginalisation. However, recent studies show that poor urban areas have a considerable number of female-lead households. Energy is a critical input for these households, resulting in women being increasingly vulnerable to unsustainable energy consumption patterns and energy insecurity. In this article, a structured literature review is conducted to investigate energy technologies that contribute to energy security among energy-poor women. The key factors to consider in the mainstreaming of a gender perspective into energy technology innovations are then identified and contextualised. How these factors can help achieve the sustainable development goals and contribute to ensuring sustainable energy sectors is also highlighted.AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Energiesektore word gekonfronteer met die onderling gekoppelde uitdagings van verstedeliking en om ʼn groeiende bevolking te voorsien met toeganklike en volhoubare energie wat ekonomiese ontwikkeling, energiesekerheid en amoede-vermindering fasiliteer. Die Doelwitte vir Volhoubare Ontwikkeling behandel kwessies soos armoede, geslagsgelykheid, energie, en volhoubare stede en beklemtoon die noodsaaklikheid om die lewens van arm gemeenskappe te verbeter en ekonomiese marginalisering aan te spreek. Onlangse studies toon egter dat arm stedelike gebiede ʼn aansienlike aantal huishoudings met vroue aan die hoof het. Energie is ʼn kritieke inset vir hierdie huishoudings wat veroorsak dat vroue toenemend kwesbaar is vir onvolhoubare energie-verbruikpatrone en energie-onsekerheid. In hierdie artikel word ʼn gestruktureerde literatuuroorsig uitgevoer om energietegnologieë te ondersoek wat bydra tot energiesekerheid onder energie-arm vroue. Die sleutelfaktore om in ag te neem vir die integrasie van ʼn geslagsperspektief in energie-tegnologie-innovasies word vervolgens identifiseer en gekontekstualiseer. Hoe hierdie faktore kan help om die Doelwitte vir Volhoubare Ontwikkeling te bereik en kan bydra tot die versekering van volhoubare energiesektore, word ook uitgelig.http://sajie.journals.ac.za/pub/article/view/2421Publisher's versio

A system dynamics approach to technology sustainability assessment : the case of biodiesel developments in South Africa

This paper suggests that a system dynamics approach is best suited to assess the sustainability of technologies, with a specific emphasis on policy interventions for renewable energy in the African context. A bioenergy technology sustainability assessment (BIOTSA) model is subsequently demonstrated by analysing the outcomes of a proposed biodiesel production development on selected sustainability indicators for the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. In addition, some scenarios are tested to compare how they may improve the selected indicators. The BIOTSA model results are useful to compare dynamic consequences that may result from the proposed biodiesel production development and the respective policies and decisions that may arise from such a development. Nevertheless, recommendations are made to improve the usefulness and practicability of this type of model for technology assessment purposes.http://www.elsevier.com/locate/technovationhb201

Technology assessment of renewable energy sustainability in South Africa

Thesis (PhD (School of Public Leadership))--University of Stellenbosch, 2012.Please download the required VENSIM software from: http://www.vensim.com/freedownload.htmlENGLISH ABSTRACT: Technology assessment has changed in nature over the last four decades. It changed from an analytical tool for technology evaluation, which depends heavily on quantitative and qualitative modelling methodologies, into a strategic planning tool for policy-making concerning acceptable new technologies, which depends on participative policy problem analysis. The goal of technology assessment today is to generate policy options for solutions of organisational and societal problems, which at the operational level, utilise new technologies that are publicly acceptable; that is, viable policy options. Energy technology assessment for sustainability is inherently a complex and dynamic process that requires a holistic and transdisciplinary approach. In the South Africa context, specifically, there is no formal and coherent approach to energy technology assessment from a sustainability perspective. Without a formal comprehensive or well integrated technology assessment approach to evaluate the sustainability of any technology, the policy-makers, technology designers, and decision-makers are faced with difficulty in terms of making reasoned decisions about the appropriate technology options. This study developed a framework that incorporates a technology assessment approach, namely, system dynamics, within the broader scope of technology development for sustainability. The framework, termed the Systems Approach to Technology Sustainability Assessment (SATSA), integrates three key elements: technology development, sustainable development, and a dynamic systems approach. The study then provides a guiding process of applying the framework to energy technology assessment theory and practice within the context of sustainable development. Biodiesel, a cleaner burning replacement fuel, argued to potentially contribute to sustainable development, is used for the demonstration. Biodiesel development entails complex interactions of actors such as the technology developers, government at different levels, communities, as well as the natural environment. Different actions or responses in the greater system might hinder or undermine the positive effects of such a development. Based on the SATSA framework, a Bioenergy Technology Sustainability Assessment (BIOTSA) model was developed. The BIOTSA model was used to test the outcomes of a proposed biodiesel production development in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa on selected sustainability indicators. In addition, some policy scenarios were tested to compare how they assist in improving the selected indicators. The BIOTSA model results are useful in comparing dynamic consequences resulting from a proposed biodiesel production development and the respective policies and decisions that may arise from such a development. The testing and validation of the BIOTSA model was carried out based on structural validity, behavioural validity, and expert opinion. Potential policy scenario outcomes and their implication, on the selected sustainability indicators, were also tested. The opinions of the selected stakeholders indicated that the BIOTSA model was useful in providing an understanding of the potential impacts of the biodiesel development on selected sustainability indicators in the Eastern Cape Province. Thus, the SATSA framework can be applied for assessing sustainability of other renewable energy technologies. In addition, system dynamics provide a useful and a feasible dynamic systems approach for energy technology sustainability assessment. Finally, the model building process and transdisciplinary nature of this study enabled the identification of the potential problems that could arise during the biodiesel production development. In addition, gaps in data and knowledge were identified and the recommendation for future work in this field is highlighted. Nevertheless, the findings of the BIOTSA model could inform policy- and decision-making in biodiesel production development in South Africa. The development of similar models for other renewable energy development efforts is thus recommended. The current efforts to facilitate the large-scale roll out of concentrated solar thermal technologies in Southern Africa, for example, would require the development of a Solar Thermal Technology Sustainability Assessment (SOTTSA) model.AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die aard van tegnologie assessering het in die afgelope vier dekades verander. Dit het verander ten opsigte van ’n analitiese hulpmiddel vir tegnologie evaluering, wat hoofsaaklik staatmaak op kwalitatiewe en kwantitatiewe modelleringsmetodiek, na ’n strategiese beplanningshulpmiddel vir beleidvorming met betrekking tot nuwe aanvaarbare tegnologieë, wat afhanklik is van ’n deelnemende beleidsprobleem analise. Vandag se doel vir tegnologie assessering is om beleidsopsies vir oplossings van organisatoriese en sosiale probleme te genereer, wat op operasionele vlak gebruik maak van nuwe tegnologieë wat deur die publiek aanvaar is; met ander woorde, lewensvatbare beleidsopsies. Energie tegnologie assessering vir volhoubaarheid is sonder twyfel ’n komplekse en dinamiese proses wat ’n holistiese en transdisiplinêre benadering benodig. In die Suid- Afrikaanse konteks is daar geen formele en samehangende benadering tot tegnologie assessering vanaf ’n volhoubaarheidsperspektief nie. Beleidsmakers, tegnologie ontwerpers en besluitnemers mag sukkel om beredenerende besluite te neem oor die toepaslike tegnologie opsies sonder ’n formele omvattende of goed geïntegreerde tegnologie assesseringsbenadering om die volhoubaarheid van enige tegnologie te evalueer. Hierdie studie het ’n raamwerk ontwerp wat die tegnologie assesseringsbenadering inkorporeer binne die breë bestek van tegnologiese ontwikkeling vir volhoubaarheid naamlik, stelsel dinamika. Die raamwerk, genoem die Sisteem Benadering tot Tegnologie Volhoubaarheidsassessering (SBTVA) integreer drie sleutelelemente: tegnologiese ontwikkeling, volhoubaarheidsontwikkeling, en ʼn dinamiese stelsels benadering. Verder verskaf die studie ’n leidende proses te opsigte van die toepassing van die raamwerk tot energie tegnologie assesseringsteorie en praktyk binne die konteks van volhoubaarheidsontwikkeling. Biodiesel word gebruik vir die demonstrasie omdat dit gereken word as ’n skoner plaasvervanger vir brandstof en daar aangevoer word dat dit ’n potensiële bydraer tot volhoubaarheidsontwikkeling is. Die ontwikkeling van biodiesel behels komplekse interaksie tussen verskeie akteurs soos tegnologiese ontwikkelaars, die regering op verskillende vlakke, gemeenskappe asook die natuurlike omgewing. Verskeie aksies of reaksies in die groter sisteem mag dalk die positiewe effek van so ontwikkeling ondermyn of verhinder. ’n Biodiesel Tegnologiese Volhoubaarheidsassessering (BIOTVA) model is ontwerp gebaseer op die SBTVA raamwerk. Die BIOTVA model is gebruik om die uitkomste op geselekteerde volhoubaarheidsaanduiders van ’n voorgestelde biodiesel produksie ontwikkeling in die Oos- Kaap Provinsie van Suid-Afrika te toets. Buiten vir die voorafgaande is sekere beleidtoekomsblikke ook getoets om te vergelyk hoe hulle sal help om die geselekteerde aanwysers te verbeter. Die BIOTVA model resultate is behulpsaam in die vergelyking van dinamiese gevolge wat voortspruit uit die voorgestelde biodiesel produksie ontwikkeling asook die onderskeie beleide en besluite wat mag ontstaan van so ’n ontwikkeling. Die toetsing en bekragtiging van die BIOTVA model was uitgevoer gebaseer op strukturele geldigheid, gedragsgeldigheid, en kundige opinie. Potensiële beleidtoekomsblikke uitkomste en die nagevolge, ten opsigte van die geselekteerde volhoubaarheidsaanduiders, is ook getoets. Die opinies van die geselekteerde aandeelhouers het aangedui dat die BIOTVA model bruikbaar is om ’n beter begrip te verskaf ten opsigte van die potensiële impak wat die biodiesel ontwikkeling op geselekteerde volhoubaarheidsaanduiders in die Oos-Kaap Provinsie sal hê. As gevolg hiervan kan die SBTVA raamwerk toegepas word om die volhoubaarheid van ander herwinbare energie tegnologieë te assesseer. Buiten die voorafgaande kan stelsel dinamika ’n bruikbare en uitvoerbare dinamiese stelselbenadering vir energie tegnologie volhoubaarheidsassessering verskaf. Ten slotte, die model bouproses en transdisiplinêre aarde van die studie het gehelp om potensiële probleme wat kan voorkom tydens die biodiesel produksie ontwikkeling te identifiseer. Daarby is gapings in data en kennis ook geïdentifiseer en die aanbevelings vir verdere studie in die veld is uitgelig. Nieteenstaande kan die bevindings van die BIOTVA model beleidmakers en besluitnemers in die biodiesel produksie ontwikkeling van Suid- Afrika inlig. Die ontwikkeling van soortgelyke modelle vir ander herwinbare energie ontwikkelingspogings word aanbeveel. As voorbeeld sal die huidige pogings om die grootskaalse uitrol van gekonsentreerde son termiese tegnologieë in Suider-Afrika te fasiliteer die ontwikkeling van ’n Son Termiese Tegnologie Volhoubaarheidsassesering (SOTTVA) model benodig

A conceptual framework for energy technology sustainability assessment

The original publication is available at http://www.sciencedirect.comTechnology assessment has changed in nature over the last four decades from an analytical tool for technology evaluation, which depends heavily on quantitative and qualitative modelling methodologies, into a strategic planning tool for policymaking concerning acceptable new technologies, which depends on participative policy problem analysis. The goal of technology assessment today is to generate policy options for solutions of organizational and societal problems, which, at the operational level, utilize new technologies that are publicly acceptable, that is, viable policy options. This study focuses on the development of a framework that incorporates a technology assessment approach, namely, system dynamics, within the broader scope of technology development for sustainability. The framework, termed systemapproach to technology sustainability assessment (SATSA), integrates three key elements: technology development, sustainable development, and dynamic systems approach. The article then demonstrates the framework of incorporating the system dynamics methodology in energy technology assessment theory and practice within the context of sustainable development. The framework provides for technology sustainability assessment, which, in turn, can guide the promotion of sustainable energy technologies at a policy level. In addition, it can assist technology developers in understanding the potential impacts of a technology, hence enabling them to reduce technology transfer risksPost-prin

Determinants of producers’ choice of wine grape cultivars in the South African wine industry

Thesis (MAgricAdmin (Agricultural Economics))--University of Stellenbosch, 2005.The wine industry is one of the oldest commercial activities in South Africa. The South African wine grape industry annually produces more than a million tonnes of grapes, making the country the ninth largest producer in the world. The total area under wine grape production is divided into eight regions for administrative purposes. These boundaries are a legacy of the era of controlled marketing and there is continued meaningfulness of having various classifications such as ‘wine of origin’ scheme. The purpose of this study is to identify the factors that determine the producers’ choice of wine grape cultivars in the wine regions in South Africa. Time series data for the period 1990-2003 were used to estimate the parameters of linear regression models. Two equations for each wine grape cultivar in each region were postulated and estimated using Ordinary Least Squares as applied with Eviews. Further, a stepwise regression as applied in STATISTICA was used to eliminate the parameters that were not statistically significant at five percent significant level. In identifying the factors that determine the choice of wine grape cultivars in the regions, the results showed that each wine grape cultivar in each region has its own factors influencing the producers’ choice of that specific wine grape cultivar. Same wine grape cultivars in different regions similarly have its own factors determining the producers’ choice. The implication of this is that there are differences in terms of the requirements and types of crops and wine grape cultivars grown in each region. However, the most important result that emerged with regular frequency is that, the factors determining the producers’ choice of a specific wine grape cultivar for each region is price of other wine grape cultivars and competitive products in that wine region. The price of specific wine grape cultivars only had an influence on few wine grape cultivars. The implication is that the producers in South Africa appears to consider the prices of other wine grape cultivars and competitive products before making a choice of whether to plant or uproot a specific wine grape cultivar more than the price of the specific wine grape cultivar. This supports the theory that farm prices play a key role in allocating resources and in rewarding efficient producers

Using an adapted system dynamics approach to determine the linkage between electric vehicle market penetration and affordability

CITATION: Pillay, N. S., Brent, A. C. & Musango, J. K. 2018. Using an adapted system dynamics approach to determine the linkage between electric vehicle market penetration and affordability. In SAIIE29 Proceedings, 24-26 October 2018, Spier, Stellenbosch, South Africa.The original publication is available at https://conferences.sun.ac.za/index.php/saiie29/saiie29/schedConf/presentationsThis paper focuses on an adapted process for system dynamics modelling based on industry experience and the successful implementation of system dynamics models within an electricity utility. The modelling process was demonstrated using a case study of battery electric vehicle (BEV) market penetration in South Africa and its substitution of internal combustion engine vehicle, as a function of affordability based on real disposable income. The results indicate that South Africans are living beyond their “income” constraints and purchasing far more vehicles than what their disposable income allows, with the situation worsening over time. The Gauteng province will have the largest potential to absorb BEVs (81,123) and the highest impact on residential electricity consumption (an additional 4,291 GWh) whilst the lowest is the Northern Cape province with 5,140 BEVs (an equivalent of 272 GWh). However, if disposable income is used as a parametric to determine the affordability of BEVs then there may be 80% less than the expected number of BEVs in terms of market penetration. To benefit from a reduction in carbon emissions in the transport sector, a renewables heavy supply mix would be required else there is not much benefit with South Africa’s current coal heavy supply mix.https://conferences.sun.ac.za/index.php/saiie29/saiie29/paper/view/3723Publisher's versio

Exploring the connections between green economy and informal economy in South Africa

CITATION: Smit, S. & Musango, J. K. 2015. Exploring the connections between green economy and informal economy in South Africa. South African Journal of Science, 111(11-12): 1-10, doi: 10.17159/sajs.2015/20140435.The original publication is available at http://www.sajs.co.zaThe notion of an inclusive green economy in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication requires an approach that engages with the informal economy. However, the informal economy is generally ignored or undervalued in discussions on the green economy. This paper set out to bolster this argument by identifying the ways in which the green economy and the informal economy may be connected by establishing the extent to which policies and plans relating to green economy connect with the informal economy, and recognising several informal green activities. The barriers and opportunities for connecting the two spheres were also explored as well as possible ways in which such activities may be supported at different levels of organisation. In the case of South Africa, many informal green activities that contribute to sustainable livelihoods are recognised. However, issues pertaining to procedure, process and participation hinder the transition to a truly inclusive green economy.http://www.sajs.co.za/exploring-connections-between-green-economy-and-informal-economy-south-africa/suzanne-smit-josephine-k-musangoPublisher's versio